Fashion is one of the key tangible expressions that is a culmination of the lifestyle and environmental influences that affect consumers. It is the singular long-term/repetitive product experience consumers indulge in, unlike visiting a restaurant or trying a new drink. These influences (both conscious and sub-conscious) span from what is happening in cinemas, media and content, celebrity lifestyle, designer community, societal politics, restaurant culture and beverage choices to travel attractions, global impact initiatives, living preferences and so on.
Predicting fashion trends is not a perfect science but an intuitive science. Why? Trend predictions need to be in tune with consumer sentiments, which in itself is a constant variable. It is an outcome of four factors, what we at ICH NEXT® casually call RAIA: Research, Analysis, Intuition and Aesthetic. Research of all the aforementioned factors influence and affect consumers. Analysing these phenomena, occurrences and influences help arrive at the direction consumers are gravitating towards. This is where Intuition kicks in – to assess and pick the likelihood of future affinities of the consumer, making choices of probable expressions. Aesthetic applies in the choices made on how this analysed, predictive information is exposed. To effect change, one needs to inspire with relevance and that’s where aesthetics become important. For example, while a Prussian blue might be predicted to trend in Isfahan carpet patterns, the choice of how that narrative and pattern idea is communicated is an aesthetic applied.
Hmmm…Illustrating RAIA
To further illustrate the above approach, sharing here a macro trend that took last year’s festive season by storm. We (ICH NEXT) predicted a bold narrative titled ‘Merchant’ of revival stories from the Silk Route, tracing back to the art forms that thrived in trade between Persia, Africa, India and the Orient. What drove this prediction? Numerous factors some of which were:
1) India becoming the epicentre of global conversations, hosting the G20 summit and leading the BRICS dialogue; 2) The country’s presently regained economic prowess which compares to its pre-colonial heritage when the nation thrived in trade and scientific progress; 3) Top chefs in the country spoke of the goodness that came from indigenous foods and recipes which today are being re-served as packaged ‘super foods’; 4) Revivalism stories thriving in Art and Culture exhibits in India and globally, including Sutr Santiti (a textile exhibition held at the NGMA Mumbai that showcased around 125 commissioned pieces that highlight India’s rich textile heritage) and the collab showcase of Chanakya School of Craft with Dior; 5) Travel trends indicated consumers craving for ‘real experiences’, redefining the term exotic with visits to under-explored heritage sites; and so on.
Connecting these dots, the prediction for consumers to gravitate towards revival stories from the past was narrowed upon. Picking indigenous food colour palettes, print and patterns inspired by crafts that were traded. The trend was hugely validated by multiple designers (in India and globally) and influential fashion houses like Sabyasachi, TarunTahiliani, Ritu Kumar, GoodEarth, JJ Valaya, Debyani & Co, GAP etc., picking on the sentiment and expression.
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Fashion businesses are built on the pillar of staying relevant to their consumers to retain loyalty and repeat purchases. While creating ‘more of what they buy’ is one philosophy, it is not enough to build brand saliency. Secondly, the lengthy supply chain for apparel houses requires them to know well in advance the trends for future seasons that consumers would be seeking. For decades now, global brands have steered their path to success by following deeply researched fashion forecasts, to better understand the emerging preferences of the global and local consumer. A well-researched trend forecast provides a perspective of upcoming trends with clarity, to ensure businesses make the right decisions while staying relevant and exciting to their consumers.
Fact: India’s influences are unique. Easy access to data and technology has opened doors for the youth, merging boundaries and steering a more unified thought. The country is exposed to regional, national and global experiences that are perceived and adopted differently. This confluence of exposure leads to a non-typical expression in fashion and choices – a phenomenon that urges companies to go beyond their localised understanding of the consumer to get a more holistic view. Hence, begging the necessity for adopting such industry best practices.
Impacting the Bottom Line
Establishing a successful apparel business necessitates strategic investments in the right product, typically made 120 – 270 days before the launch date. On an average, a mid-sized retailer commits an investment ranging from Rs. 3-5 lakhs for each product. However, if the chosen style does not align with consumer preferences, the product may undergo substantial discounting, resulting in financial losses and a direct impact on the brand’s profitability. Effective business metrics hinge on backing the ‘right product at the right time.’ Deciding what qualifies as ‘right’ requires thorough research that surpasses relying solely on instinct for optimal outcomes. This is precisely where trend forecast research becomes invaluable. A meticulously researched product not only translates into higher unit sales but can also yield returns that are 10 per cent – 15 per cent higher, achieved through a reduction in product discounting.
Trend Forecasting
With technological advancements in machine learning and large language models, research and analysis with customised cuts of data is a definitive reality. Predictive analytics presently uses past data to arrive at evolutionary trend lines, but cannot ‘yet’ replace intuitiveness. At ICH, we believe trends are rarely linear and usually are a convergence of seemingly unrelated events and influences that address the latent, future demand of the consumer. To predict a ‘shift’ in path or what has never been done before, with a fresh aesthetic retains the need for human ‘art’ within the ‘science’ of tech. But with the increasing sophistication of ML and LLM (Large Language Models), it will be surely intriguing to see what the future holds for this industry.
ICH is a Creative Strategy firm for consumer-centred Brand Concepts, Design and Content. It aims to address the need gap for human-centric brand ideas in the fashion & lifestyle retail market.
