India’s leading quick commerce platforms, including Blinkit and Instamart, are expected to report a moderation in growth for the January-March quarter, following several periods of rapid expansion. Analysts and industry executives attribute this shift to a strategic pivot towards improving margins and achieving profitability.
The slowdown also coincides with intensifying competition in the sector, with Amazon and Flipkart expanding their presence in quick commerce. Meanwhile, rival Zepto is sharpening its focus on profitability ahead of a potential public listing in the June-July period.
Brokerage estimates suggest that Blinkit, owned by Eternal, will report net order value (NOV) growth of 67%-99% year-on-year for the March quarter, a decline from the over 100% growth it had sustained over the previous six to seven quarters. Instamart, which had already reported a sequential decline in order volumes in the December quarter, is projected to post gross order value (GOV) growth of 77%-80%, compared with consistently doubling this metric in earlier periods.
In the October-December quarter, Blinkit reported NOV of Rs 13,300 crore (US $1.43 billion), reflecting a 121% year-on-year increase. Instamart recorded gross sales of Rs 7,938 crore (US $855 million), up 103% over the same period.
Profitability trends remain mixed across players. Blinkit reported a marginal adjusted EBITDA profit of Rs 4 crore (US $431,000) in the December quarter, effectively breaking even. In contrast, Instamart posted significant losses of Rs 908 crore (US $97.86 million) at the adjusted EBITDA level, weighing on the financial performance of its parent, Swiggy.
Instamart has also faced growth challenges among price-sensitive consumers, with the company earlier indicating a decline in order volumes in this segment due to what it described as irrational competition. Swiggy’s management has signalled a willingness to prioritise profitability over short-term growth in order volumes.
BofA Securities observed that despite Instamart withdrawing its earlier free delivery offering, order volumes are unlikely to be significantly affected, while contribution margins may improve modestly and losses could narrow.
Swiggy has guided that Instamart is expected to achieve positive contribution margins by the April-June quarter. UBS noted that while competition remains intense, it has not worsened compared with the December-January period, and highlighted measures such as higher thresholds for free delivery and more disciplined discounting as supportive of margins.
Overall, analysts suggest that the anticipated moderation in growth reflects both seasonal factors and a more measured approach by companies as they balance expansion with the imperative of profitability.
